David Frum: China won't "catch up" any time soon

David Frum, writing for Foreign Policy:

"If the US economy continues to grow at its recent average of 3% a year, even a booming China will not overtake US GDP for half a century. If China's growth rate slows, the moment of "catch up" recedes even further into the future. Such a slowdown seems inevitable. China's financial sector is rickety to the point of collapse, inflation is accelerating, and the country is quickly bumping up against the limits of low-wage manufacturing. Energy and water shortages are rampant. Environmental degradation is escalating into a serious political issue. Political tensions between the central and regional governments are intensifying. And, very soon, China's aging population will have to leave work and begin tapping into its savings. Even if China somehow escapes the laws of economic gravity, what precisely is an American president to do about it? Try to stunt China's growth? How? And to what end?"

Comments

[JD]

Not to mention that, according to China’s own Ministry of Public Security, there were over 80,000 (!) cases of pubic disturbances and riots in 2005 alone, so the people of China are seemingly growing restless. And we've heard this all before: first Japan was going to move ahead of the US economy, then Germany and now it China's turn to be put in this position by "forecasters".

[eu007]

I have no doubt the predictions are wishful thinking. It's the people who want an EU state who use the idea of China's future dominance as a reason for integration. Anything but the USA for these people.