America in the World

Barack Obama pursues 'minilateralism' in Copenhagen, bypassing UN for deal with China, India, Brazil and S Africa

One of the most interesting features of the Copenhagen summit was President Obama's decision to work with a very small number of nations once it had become clear that all nations gathered by the United Nations were not going to reach agreement.

The UK Liberal Democrat MEP Fiona Hall matter-of-factly noted the President's actions on LibDemVoice blog:

"After yesterday afternoon’s impasse on an international agreement, President Obama took matters into his own hands, struck a deal with China, India, Brazil and South Africa – and promptly left the country."

For a president who has been critical of his predecessor's go-it-aloneism the decision to form this small group is noteworthy. George W Bush had his coalition-of-the-willing in Iraq. Obama's grouping of China, India, Brazil and South Africa will probably get a name in due course too.

A technical name for what Obama engineered has already been proposed by Moisés Naím of Foreign Policy. He suggested that the failure of multilateralism will increasingly leads to minilateralism:

Naím on the failure of multilateralism: "When was the last time you heard that a large number of countries agreed to a major international accord on a pressing issue? Not in more than a decade. The last successful multilateral trade agreement dates back to 1994, when 123 countries gathered to negotiate the creation of the World Trade Organization and agreed on a new set of rules for international trade. Since then, all other attempts to reach a global trade deal have crashed. The same is true with multilateral efforts to curb nuclear proliferation; the last significant international nonproliferation agreement was in 1995, when 185 countries agreed to extend an existing nonproliferation treaty. In the decade and a half since, multilateral initiatives have not only failed, but India, Pakistan, and North Korea have demonstrated their certain status as nuclear powers. On the environment, the Kyoto Protocol, a global deal aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, has been ratified by 184 countries since it was adopted in 1997, but the United States, the world's second-largest air polluter after China, has not done so, and many of the signatories have missed their targets."

Naím on the need for minilateralism: "By minilateralism, I mean a smarter, more targeted approach: We should bring to the table the smallest possible number of countries needed to have the largest possible impact on solving a particular problem. Think of this as minilateralism's magic number. The magic number, of course, will vary greatly depending on the problem. Take trade, for example. The Group of Twenty (G-20), which includes both rich and poor countries from six continents, accounts for 85 percent of the world's economy. The members of the G-20 could reach a major trade deal among themselves and make it of even greater significance by allowing any other country to join if it wishes to do so. Presumably, many would. Same with climate change. There, too, the magic number is about 20: The world's 20 top polluters account for 75 percent of the planet's greenhouse gas emissions. The number for nuclear proliferation is 21—enough to include both recognized and de facto nuclear countries, and several other powers who care about them. African poverty? About a dozen, including all the major donor countries and the sub-Saharan countries most in need. As for HIV/AIDS, 19 countries account for nearly two thirds of the world's AIDS-related deaths."

Obama accused of "climate crime" as green groups condemn Copenhagen outcome

Many on the international Left had unrealistic expectations of what Barack Obama could achieve (and at what pace) but green groups and commenters have reacted furiously to the outcome of the Copenhagen climate talks summit:

"The city of Copenhagen is a climate crime scene tonight, with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport in shame. World leaders had a once in a generation chance to change the world for good, to avert catastrophic climate change. In the end they produced a poor deal full of loopholes big enough to fly Air Force One through." - Kumi Naidoo, Executive Director of Greenpeace (quoted at The Huffington Post).

"The world's worst polluters - the people who are drastically altering the climate - gathered here in Copenhagen to announce they were going to carry on cooking, in defiance of all the scientific warnings. They didn't seal the deal; they sealed the coffin for the world's low-lying islands, its glaciers, its North Pole, and millions of lives." - Johann Hari, The Independent

"Today optimism feels impossible. The chance of world leaders preventing a more than 2C increase in temperature looks vanishingly small. Politics is being weighed in the balance and found wanting. The writing is on the wall. The leadership required within and between each nation is heavier lifting that the weak machinery of governmental power can manage." - Polly Toynbee, The Guardian

The Sky News video below records President Obama's immediate reaction to the limited agreement:

America is more resistant to decisive action on climate change than other nations

A global poll of major economies by the BBC finds that the people of the USA are more resistant to action on climate change than most other nations.

Although nearly three-quarters of Americans say climate change is "very serious" (45%) or "somewhat serious" (29%) a large minority (42%) oppose "government investment to address climate change if it hurts the economy". The chart reproduced on the right shows how this level of opposition to government action is larger than any other industrial nation.

Despite this domestic tension Barack Obama is now expected to attend the final stages of the Copenhagen Conference on climate change. Amid reports that more progress is now likely at the international gathering than originally expected, the US President is to switch his attendance from the beginning of the gathering to the end.

FOOTNOTE

The usefulness of the BBC survey has to be doubted. Its finding that just 25% of UK voters oppose "government investment to address climate change" would appear to be encouraging for those environmentalists wanting bold action. But more detailed polling in Britain by leading pollster ICM for The Sunday Telegraph finds much more scepticism:

"Asked if they backed the main conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that humans are largely responsible for modern day rises in temperatures, 52 per cent of [British] voters agreed. However, 39 per cent said climate change had not yet been proven to be man made, while seven per cent simply denied the phenomenon was happening at all. Furthermore, fewer than one in four voters (23 per cent) believed that climate change was "the most serious problem faced by man" – a view endorsed by governments across the world. A clear majority (58 per cent) said it was merely "one of a number of serious problems" while 17 per cent believed it has been exaggerated and is "not a very serious problem.""

More on The Telegraph website.

Obama will attend Copenhagen conference after tumultuous week for climate change campaigners

Environmental campaigners will be grateful that President Obama has agreed to attend the Copenhagen climate change conference despite a growing sense in recent weeks that the meeting will fail to deliver binding legal commitments from world governments. The White House will hope that this visit to the Danish capital will be more successful than ther President's last, when he travelled in support of a bid to win the Olympics for Chigaco. America was eliminated from the contest for the 2016 Games in the first round of voting.

US Senator John Kerry welcomed the President's commitment to the climate change gathering:

“The fact that the president will attend the Copenhagen talks underscores that the administration is putting its money where its mouth is, putting the president's prestige on the line.”

Furthermore Mr Obama has pledged to reduce total US emissions by 17% by 2020 (based on a 2005 starting point). That ends US isolation - previously America was the only developed country without an explicit target.  Climate change campaigners hope that the American President's commitment will encourage China and India to make similar commitments and that those commitments will, in turn, encourage a sceptical US Senate to pass the stalled Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill.

The possibility of sceptical American legislators passing climate change legislation declined further this week, however, after Congressional Republicans "started investigating climate scientists whose hacked emails [from the University of East Anglia] suggest they tried to squelch dissenting views about global warming". There is a full Wall Street Journal report here into the investigation. In an editorial the WSJ considered the importance of the leaked emails:

"We do now have hundreds of emails that give every appearance of testifying to concerted and coordinated efforts by leading climatologists to fit the data to their conclusions while attempting to silence and discredit their critics. In the department of inconvenient truths, this one surely deserves a closer look by the media, the U.S. Congress and other investigative bodies."

In a further blow to the climate change industry, the BBC has highlighted the fact that money promised under the Kyoto Treaty by developed to developing nations was never delivered. The failure to deliver the money meant to help poorer countries deal with climate change will not increase trust between the first and third worlds in Copenhagen.

Obama under pressure to attend climate change talks in Copenhagen

Britain's Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, ed Miliband, has urged President Obama to attend next month's Copenhagen summit on climate change:

 "I think as many leaders as possible - including President Obama - do need to come there, because that will make a difference in the end to the kind of deal we want... His diary is a matter for him, but I hope he does go. I think it's important that this is done in the end by leaders."

(Source: BBC).

The pressure on the US President is likely to be resented by the White House. President Obama does not want to be associated with a failed summit and in the last 24 hours there has been a retreat from the initial hope that Copenhagen would deliver a binding climate deal.

World leaders are more hesitant, partly because of opinion polling which suggests voters do not see action on climate change as a priority during these difficult economic times. In a poll of British voters for The Times, "only just over a quarter (28 per cent) think that [climate change] is happening and is “far and away the most serious problem we face as a country and internationally”.  "Just over half (51 per cent)," found Populus for The TImes, "think it is “a serious problem, but other problems are more serious”.

A growing number of Americans think media coverage of climate change is "exaggerated".

Obama highlights seven key changes in American foreign policy since Bush left White House

In a major speech to the United Nations yesterday Barack Obama set out the ways in which American foreign policy had already changed since he became President:

1. Closing Guantanomo: "On my first day in office, I prohibited -- without exception or equivocation -- the use of torture by the United States of America. I ordered the prison at Guantanamo Bay closed, and we are doing the hard work of forging a framework to combat extremism within the rule of law."
2. Withdrawing from Iraq: 'We have removed American combat brigades from Iraqi cities, and set a deadline of next August to remove all our combat brigades from Iraqi territory."
3. Reductions in America's nuclear arsenal: "I have outlined a comprehensive agenda to seek the goal of a world without nuclear weapons."
4. A new effort at Middle East Peace: "I appointed a Special Envoy for Middle East Peace, and America has worked steadily and aggressively to advance the cause of two states -- Israel and Palestine -- in which peace and security take root, and the rights of both Israelis and Palestinians are respected."
5. Global leadership against climate change: "To confront climate change, we have invested $80 billion in clean energy.  We have substantially increased our fuel-efficiency standards.  We have provided new incentives for conservation, launched an energy partnership across the Americas, and moved from a bystander to a leader in international climate negotiations."
6. Action against the global recession: "We worked with the G20 nations to forge a coordinated international response of over $2 trillion in stimulus to bring the global economy back from the brink."
7. A new respect for the United Nations: "We have paid our bills.  We have joined the Human Rights Council.  (Applause.)  We have signed the Convention of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.  We have fully embraced the Millennium Development Goals.  And we address our priorities here, in this institution  -- for instance, through the Security Council meeting that I will chair tomorrow on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, and through the issues that I will discuss today."

Read the full speech here.

President Obama gave the speech on the day when the New York Times reported that the White House was reconsidering its strategy in Afghanistan. Vice President Joe Biden disagrees with US generals on the ground that more troops are needed. "Rather than trying to protect the Afghan population from the Taliban," the New York Times suggested, "American forces would concentrate on strikes against Qaeda cells, primarily in Pakistan, using special forces, Predator missile attacks and other surgical tactics."

It is not clear if the consideration of alternatives represents a real change of heart since Obama promised an Iraq-style troops surge or is a necessary exercise to reassure Democrats that all alternative options have been explored.

Obama accelerates his 'America has changed' message

Last week was a big week for President Obama's mission to show that US foreign policy will be very different under his administration.  On climate change, 'torture', Cuba and relations with other American states he communicated his change agenda.  The BBC communicated all four shifts:

On climate change... "The US government is to regulate carbon dioxide emissions, having decided that it and five other greenhouse gases may endanger human health and well-being. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced the move following a review of the scientific evidence. The decision marks a major change from the Bush presidency, when the EPA argued it could not regulate CO2 because the gas was not a pollutant."

Publication of 'torture' memos... "The US has published four secret memos detailing legal justification for the Bush-era CIA interrogation programme. Critics of the programme say the methods used amounted to torture. President Barack Obama has also issued a statement guaranteeing that no CIA employees will be prosecuted for their role in the interrogation programme."

Friendlier relations with other American states... "President Barack Obama has said the US seeks an "equal partnership" with all the nations of the Americas. Mr Obama said in particular that he wanted a thaw in relations between the US and Cuba, having earlier shaken hands with one of the US's harshest critics, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez."

A easing of restrictions on Cuba... "US President Barack Obama has approved measures that will allow Cuban Americans to travel more freely to Cuba, his spokesman has said. Cuban-Americans will also be allowed to send more money to relatives in Cuba. The move, announced by White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, comes after Mr Obama last month signed a spending bill easing some economic sanctions on Cuba."

Writing in the Financial Times Clive Crook attempted to define an Obama foreign policy doctrine.  He identified a key ingredient as personal warmth:

"Mr Obama’s willingness to start anew, ask what works, offer respect to governments that crave it (even if they may not deserve it) and patiently seek progress where he may is refreshing.

One aspect of this pragmatism is the president’s desire to build alliances and cool old enmities, and work towards US aims through co-operation rather than confrontation. The trouble is, most US presidents – including Mr Obama’s predecessor – felt the same way until the world beat it out of them. Foreign policy doctrine is put to the test only when co-operation in pursuit of mutual interests fails to achieve results, and the hard choices that Mr Obama insists he is willing to make actually present themselves.

Though it is much too soon to write off Mr Obama’s friendly overtures, you could hardly describe them so far as a notable success. He travelled to Europe this month and received ovations at every step; presidents and prime ministers jostled like giddy teenagers to be photographed with him. Yet he went away with nothing: no co-ordinated fiscal stimulus; no meaningful commitments of new military support in Afghanistan. Judged by the outcome, could his predecessor have done much worse?

The world agreed that North Korea’s missile test should be opposed; the US even hinted it might shoot the rocket down. The launch went ahead without repercussions. The US and its allies could not agree on a response.

The world believes that Iran should be stopped from developing nuclear weapons, but the allies drag their feet over sanctions."

Read the rest of Crook's piece here.

Clinton urges China not to repeat America's environmental "mistakes"

Report from USA Today:

"Clinton encouraged China not to repeat the "same mistakes" as Western countries. "When we were industrializing and growing we didn't know any better," she said. "Neither did Europe. Now we are smart enough to figure out how to have the right kind of growth, sustainable growth, clean energy driven growth. This plant could be a model."

Vowing to build an "important partnership" to speed "our transition to low-carbon economies," Clinton cited three areas for Sino-U.S. co-operation: renewable energy, the capture and storage of CO2 from coal plants, and energy efficiency in buildings."

Joe Biden points to continuation of Bush's missile defence policy and new spirit of partnership in US foreign policy

In the first major foreign policy speech of the Obama administration, Vice President Joe Biden has addressed the annual Munich Security Conference:

Promising a new spirit of cooperation and a new tone, pasted below are key extracts of Mr Biden's remarks:

The five top challenges facing our young century:

1. "The spread of mass destruction weapons and dangerous diseases;
2. A growing gap between rich and poor;
3. Ethnic animosities and failed states;
4. A rapidly warming planet and uncertain supplies of energy, food, water;
5. The challenge to freedom and security from radical fundamentalism."

America will compromise its ideals in delivering security

"America will not torture. We will uphold the rights of those we bring to justice. And we will close the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay. Tough choices lie ahead. As we seek a lasting framework for our common struggle against extremism, we will have to work cooperatively with nations around the world – and we will need your help. For example, we will be asking others to take responsibility for some of those now at Guantanamo. Our security is shared. So, too, is our responsibility to defend it."

Iran can come out of the cold if it gives up its nuclear programme

"We are willing to talk to Iran, and to offer a very clear choice: continue down your current course and there will be pressure and isolation; abandon your illicit nuclear program and support for terrorism and there will be meaningful incentives."

America will defeat Islamic extremists as it offers friendship to the Muslim world

"In the Muslim world, a small number of violent extremists are beyond the call of reason. We will defeat them. But hundreds of millions of hearts and minds share the values we hold dear. We will reach them. President Obama has made clear that we will seek a new way forward based on mutual interest and mutual respect. It was not by accident that he gave his very first interview as President to Al-Arabiya.

[Earlier this week Hillary Clinton announced that her first foreign trip would be to a Muslim nation; Indonesia].

President Bush's missile defence programme will continue

"We will continue to develop missile defenses to counter a growing Iranian capability, provided the technology is proven to work and cost effective."

America will support a stronger defence role for the EU

"We also support the further strengthening of European defense, an increased role for the European Union in preserving peace and security, a fundamentally stronger NATO-EU partnership and deeper cooperation with countries outside the Alliance who share our common goals and principles."

We do not recognise a Russian 'sphere of influence'

"The United States will not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. We will not recognize a sphere of influence. It will remain our view that sovereign states have the right to make their own decisions and choose their own alliances."

> Full speech here.

Obama moves USA towards international consensus on global warming

Two of the leading causes of recent anti-Americanism have been the Bush administration's approach to human rights issues and its opposition to the environmentalism enshrined in the Kyoto process.  The President Elect has used the last seven days to confirm his intention to break with President Bush's record on these issues.  Last weekend Senator Obama promised to close Guantanomo Bay and end waterboarding and similar forms of aggressive interrogation.  This week he has also confirmed a more consensual approach to the issue of climate change.  London's Independent newspaper highlighted two quotations from Barack Obama that, it headlined, proved that the USA was coming "in from the cold":

"Once I take office, you can be sure that the United States will once again engage vigorously in these negotiations, and help lead the world toward a new era of global co-operation on climate change."

"We will establish strong annual targets that set us on a course to reduce emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them by an additional 80 percent by 2050."

But Washington's new position coincides with a cooling of enthusiasm for environmental policies in the rest of the recession-struck world.  Climate change sceptic Benny Peiser has collected some key quotations to illustrate the apparent shift of mood:

"EU countries may agree before the end of the year on the basic principles and structure of an agreement on the European Commission's energy and climate package, but it is unlikely that a deal will be finalised, an ambassador of one of the bloc's 27 member states told EurActiv. Efforts to forge an agreement on the package have run into opposition from a group of 'new' member states, led by Poland, who say the plans could wreck their industries and lead to massive job losses, particularly in the context of economic recession."
   --EurActiv, 19 November 2008   

"Poland has rejected an EU proposal for its coal-fired power stations to be temporarily exempted from buying all their greenhouse gas permits, a move aimed at averting a Polish veto of the bloc's climate package, a senior Polish official said Wednesday."
    --AFP, 19 November 2008

"Canada's liberal leadership candidates Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff would ditch the Green Shift carbon tax, outgoing leader Stephane Dion's signature policy, on grounds it was rejected by voters on election day."
   --Juliet O'Neill, Canwest News Service, 19 November 208

"Climate change is fading as a priority in the Pacific Rim as the gloomy state of the global economy takes precedence, a survey of opinion leaders showed Wednesday. "You see the same shift in focus in the public away from climate change questions to questions of economic survival and growth," said Woo, president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada."
     --AFP, 19 November 2008